Double Top Pattern: Your Complete Guide to Consistent Profits

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
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Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - Common Points, Example of Setup 3 and First Weeks Results.

Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - Common Points, Example of Setup 3 and First Weeks Results.
Part 1
Part 2

We're going to start this post with dealing with common heckles. Some people have heckled me already in this posting series. I know from having done things like this publicly a few times before there are catchphrase heckles to be dealt with, and we'll do this one and for all here. If I've linked you here, you've done a FMH (Frequently Made Heckle).
If you're not a heckler, you can skip the line break for the strategy stuff, but this section may still be interesting for you.
FMH 1 : Elliot wave does not work all the time.

I know. The clock in my living-room does not work all the time. If it tells me it's 2am and I look out and it's broad day light, I use some discerning judgement based on my experience of looking out of a window, and I suspect it may be incorrect. If it tells me it's 8.30am and I look out and see little kids with school bags walking past the window, I suspect the clock may have a point.

When I write all the rules and exceptions in my posts, I am not doing this to make the posts longer. These are rules and exceptions designed to describe situations when it probably is happening. Of course it does not "Always work". I am not say it does. Your assumption I have not thought through the same extraordinary simplistic, "But, what if ...." questions is either you under estimating me, over estimating you, or both.

FMH 2 : Fibs levels do not work, studies show it is as good as random.

Two points. Firstly, I've read some of these studies. These hypothetical things done by people who have never traded in the market and want to produce intellectual ideas about it. While reading through the method of the experiment it's apparent to me it won't work. I could save them some time if they call me and tell me their hypothesis;

"Nope. You'll lose about 20% a year doing that. Good general idea. Okay starting point, but you get fucked here, here and here. Work on that".
I will not value the opinion of someone paid to write papers on fibs over my experience being paid to trade them. I will not go out my way to try to get you to value my opinion. I've learned people will either test things I say and know the truth of them for their selves with me posting the amount of interesting evidence/results that I do, and others would not test it if I posted a million examples.

Point two. Not perfect does not mean not practical. Fib levels do not react absolutely perfectly. I suspect the reason for this is so many people use them to put stops behind these days. In days gone by, they were probably more accurate, but as stop clusters became more predictable and concentrated this change. Game theory sort of stuff. Read more about my thoughts on this here.

The thing is, for those who pay enough time and attention, there are patterns of when the fibs either do work very well, or "do not work" in the exact same way over and over again. If they do "not work" in the same way over and over, that's the same as working to me. I am looking for patterns to trade for profit. Not to compile a pretty chart of data points as to if price turned specifically on the 61.8 over a million samples.

FMH 3 - "Everything you're saying is wrong", "You're an idiot", "I am non-specifically and non-constructively disagreeing" (Yeah, people drop that last one, verbatim, all the time)

Pics, or it didn't happen. I am willing to "get up here" so to speak and succeed or fail in front of everyone. I'm posting what I do, and explaining all my rational. Results are being tracked. Time and continuity will display my outcomes. Is there a way you suggest you can provide stronger proof I am wrong that I am proposing to prove I am right?

If you're just saying you think I am stupid, because you know the market so much better than me my standard reply is as follows;

" If you'd like to propose, explain and track a strategy you think will outperform this we can both keep our records and that will best determine who's opinions have profitability. It seems something that would be good for the community. "

Pics or it didn't happen. Only analysts and economists are paid for opinions. My job demands a far more practical approach.

FMH 4 - "What REALLY happened with (insert news related thing) this and your guesses were just lucky".

If I said it would happen yesterday, then set trades for it happening and profited from them today; it does not matter to me the reason you give me for it tomorrow. If you choose to view the market as being like this, you may. If it ever does start to become more relevant to me making profits or not, I will pay attention to other things. Right now, I do not follow them closely and that has never mattered. Either I am consistently lucky, physic or right. Pick the flavor for you.

I will not engage in conversation on any of these points coming from a closed minded perspective. By which I mean you only commenting to tell me why you're right. If you feel someone has to add balance with these comments, go ahead. I encourage people to be scientific in their approach and having different viewpoints helps with this. Do your own experiments.

I will answer honest questions, and will gladly engage people who disagree with me and do so from the perspective of personal study. Usually we can both learn and teach if both of us have firsthand knowledge. This is rare, but enjoyable.

==================================================================================================

On to GBPUSD. As I said may be possible in the previous post, the trade for the bigger run up post Chicago was missed. This can happen. It's better to miss bad opportunities than squander good money on bad ones, and at the time I had the option of entering, there was no way to tell the difference between these - so I did nothing.

Later in the day price continued to be consistent with the formations of a spike pattern. Here I engaged the market.

GBPUSD 1 Minute

My entering pattern was to first open two small trades with a 13 pip stop. This was an emergency stop, I always planned to tighten it up (it'd only hit in the event of an immediate capitulation). The risk here was about 0.15%. When the market moved a bit lower, I entered more positions and having more data felt better about where to place stops. All stops went to 6 pips or less (bigger position, same starting risk).

As price reached the best level, I opened my largest trade. Stop went from 3 - 6 pips with big stops being 2 pips. Effective stop something like 3-4 pips. Targets hit for 10 - 12 pips, giving an effective pay off on risk just short of 1:3. I do not use aggressive position sizing in this part of the trade (usually it already carries made profits), so the net risk was low. Around 0.25%. Net gain in positions was 0.6%.

GBPUSD 1 min
From left to right the positions get bigger. Notice also the biggest position (low) takes profit a good bit before where I forecast the high (bulk close). This trade hitting should give assurance of breakeven on this trade, so the risk on capital is gone on this trade on a double top move, then profits accumulated in the breakout.

Results for the day;


https://preview.redd.it/96zq7cy1j9i31.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=d324348621a5c0931a90de207fe8aebb116f934d


Current Gain = 0.65%
Max risk exposure possible - 0.4%
Max real equity drawdown - < 0.2%

Due to not being entirely available for trading today this was a big under-performance of what the strategy could have achieved. It's been a decent example day to show the logistics of how the trades can form. To make 2 - 3% today with the same draw-down was possible.
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96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)

96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)
96 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)
A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 1-22 and 1-23.
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In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures 1-24 and 1-25. For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag.
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Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 1-26) or triple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common. The correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from July to October 1975 (see Figure 1-27) can be labeled as a double zigzag, as can the correction in the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1977 to March 1978 (see Figure 1-28). Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do.
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R.N. Elliott’s original labeling of double and triple zigzags and double and triple threes (see later section) was a quick shorthand. He denoted the intervening movements as wave X, so that double corrections were labeled A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller. We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y (-X-Z)." The letter W now denotes the first corrective pattern in a double or triple correction, Y the second, and Z the third of a triple. Each subwave thereof (A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section) is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction. Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag.
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📷
https://i.redd.it/t9a8umh82lg41.gif
Figure 1-24

Figure 1-25
Flat (3-3-5)
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A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1-29 and 1-30. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags.
📷
https://i.redd.it/7dap3j592lg41.gif
Figure 1-29

Figure 1-30
In a bear market, the pattern is the same but inverted, as shown in Figures 1-31 and 1-32.
A flat correction usually retraces less of the preceding impulse wave than does a zigzag. It tends to occur when the larger trend is strong, so it virtually always precedes or follows an extension. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within an impulse, the fourth wave frequently sports a flat, while the second wave rarely does.
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What might be called a "double flat" does occur. However, Elliott categorized such a formation as a "double three," a term we discuss later in this chapter.
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The word "flat" is used as a catch-all name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides 3-3-5. In Elliott literature, however, three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been named by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 1-29 through 1-32. Far more common, however, is the variety we call an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats.
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In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown for bull markets in Figures 1-33 and 1-34 and bear markets in Figures 1-35 and 1-36. The formation in the DJIA from August to November 1973 was an expanded flat correction in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat" (see Figure 1-37).
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In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, as in Figures 1-38 through 1-41. Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction. The result is akin to the truncation of an impulse.
It is always important, but particularly when concluding that a running flat has taken place, that the internal subdivisions adhere to Elliott’s rules. If the supposed B wave, for instance, breaks down into five waves rather than three, it is more likely the first wave up of the impulse of next higher degree. The power of adjacent impulse waves is important in recognizing running corrections, which tend to occur only in strong and fast markets.
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We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record. Never label a correction prematurely this way, or you’ll find yourself wrong nine times out of ten. A running triangle, in contrast, is much more common (see next section).
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GBPUSD and the Bear Trap Candles Around the 61.8% Fib

GBPUSD and the Bear Trap Candles Around the 61.8% Fib
GBPUSD is now trading up near the 61.8% fib. Really close. It' formed some strong seeming sell off candles. At this point if you're watching this level it's easy to think "Hmm, might just jump in". Don't! Well, do if you want. I'm not here to tell you what to do ... but woe be you.
Sometimes it can work out, but more often you end up getting stopped out or having to have a wide stop being the trade less attractive. For me, entering thinking it "just missed" is a tried and tested way to lose money over time, even if it occasionally makes money today (which is no good, we need both and have to act all days in line with the overall end).

But this looks awesome. This is everything we'd want in the general formation of the pattern. These double top like patterns in the 1.2290 area. From this sort of area price is hard to trade (better not to). It can dance one way and the other and make deceptive moves. Here is where we plan. Pending orders can be set at and slightly above the 61.8% level for swing trades (targeting lows).

Alternatively for day trading we can look for candle patterns to confirm entry. We have to be careful with pending orders on the first touch on day trading, the wicks will be a menace. They are hard to judge. Better to wait for closes and retests.

Excuse the crudeness of this (time), but this is a mock up example.

https://preview.redd.it/nv5rcmipx0j31.png?width=469&format=png&auto=webp&s=144849f7f93b9fb72f75586e667cdddc8eaa7ea3
The line is the 61.8. The spike is "fibs not working". We let it settle after that. We pay attention to candle closes. Closes matter. We look for them not breaking, only wicks. Then we get into the first retrace. We can use tight stops because we either have the high already or the trade plan is wrong. No if, buts or maybes. Makes decisions very easy.

Some scenarios we may see in near future;
61.8 touch and sell off
Sell off from this 61.8 near miss around 1.2291 (I favour this scenario)
Stall and spike into entry area.

Of these scenarios, 1 and 2 best fit with initial forecast for GBPUSD. I slightly lean towards two just because this looks a lot like a situation buyers can get squeezed and waiting sellers (like us) spoofed into their trades early.
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cv1hf4/preparing_for_the_impulse_gbpusd_traps_to_expect/

I am going to take a small low risk position 1.2273. Stop 1.2293 and target 1.2222. Since this can be a sneaky area, I use smaller trades. If we see this move, we look for the spike out to begin from our target area on the sell (small amount after)
submitted by whatthefx to u/whatthefx [link] [comments]

Looking to become a pro trader

Hi.
For quite some time I'm looking at cryptocurrency markets and I very want to join this gig as a trader, but I'm feeling my knowledge of TA, FA and markets is far from being sufficient to perform profitably so I'm looking for a bootcamp or course that can get me on board.
I've tried several courses but stuck on some of their common issues:
Ideally what I'm looking for is a big fundamental course like zero to pro covering TA, FA, other kinds of analysis of crypto markets with later instructor support on my trades when I'll start on my own (paper or real).
Maybe I'm overcomplicating things, but "money don't grow on trees" so before I start doing something with my hard earned $$$ I really want to be sure I know what I'm doing and I've got someone able to tell me what I did wrong to avoid same mistakes later.
All advises are welcome, especially those you've used to get into trading yourself.
Thanks!
P. S. I've seen a couple of similar questions around, but they didn't get much attention or had answers like copy-paste from google result page. I really would love to hear about your personal experience. How did you get in? What was your way? Did you graduate from some course and still in the markets?
submitted by thenaquad to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

‘’Pirates’’ will save crypto?

Perhaps, why not! However, what stops crypto from bullish growing? To my mind, the main reasons are not the volatility and lack of clear legal regulation, but the lack of new users (new blood), which creates a ‘’narrow’’ market. Why is this not a PR message? A message that can potentially attract the attention of brand new users who cannot take into account other investment tools (because of their complexity or high entry point or just because of the restrictions of policies of accredited investors).
If you invested in bitcoin (or in another functional cryptocurrency) exactly a year ago, then even now despite the market drop caused by the new “black swan” - a recession against the background of coronavirus, you would get more than 35% growth.
Why do we see that the audience of followers is not updated? Why all the projects are fighting for the same fans who entered the crypto before 2018 and continuing to place media uselessly on the same sites? As we all remember, until 2018, each project had access to 2 billion audience through a whole set of tools from advertising on social networks to context advertising. We used LinkedIn, reddit, twitter and of course, the 2 main tools for attracting traffic (google and Facebook). Each crypto project, using these marketing instruments, brought its advertising messages to a new audience, not only carrying out the KPI of the project, but also fueling up interest in the blockchain as a whole industry; thereby increasing the demand for crypto and its liquidity. Like any new financial instrument, crypto is faced with the resistance of the old financial system:
· misinformation on TV and the mass media (crypto is a lie, crypto is a drug and terrorism)
· pressure from regulators (SEC refused, limited, punished)
· And, of course, a decision that has the most “destructive” effect - a ban on the largest advertising platforms in the world.
Unfortunately, the sweet times before the “ban” can no longer come back. Since January 2018, advertising of blockchain and cryptocurrency projects on most of the platforms in the world and social networks has been prohibited. The first to limit the right to advertise were Google AdWords and DoubleClick, introducing a direct ban on advertising content in terms of cryptocurrencies and related materials. A similar situation with context advertising is in Yandex Direct. Social networks also show unfair attitude to the crypto industry. Nonetheless, the crypto industry is approaching a line that it becomes simply impossible to ignore. After all, no matter how the new model is revolutionary and capable of making the world a better place — it is doomed to die if no one knows about it. Of course, if you have a good marketing agency, and you are a large and successful venture blockchain project (from the top of best and most famous), with all the necessary licenses, you can still compete for banning in fb and google. Moreover, although it takes a long time, I know several projects that now have permission for official advertising. Despite the fact that the largest platforms have banned startup blockchain advertising, there are still ways to promote it.
What should everyone else do? What to do for a new comer that is just entering the market. Or for an old project that failed to get into the top of the most recognizable? ‘’Use your existing inventory’’ - it seems like the most important piece of advice that almost every project follows. Now we see how hundreds of projects are simultaneously placing on the same platforms (crypto news, ICO listings, bloggers), squeezing the last attention and investments from the same target groups. What are the results? They are obvious. Fundraising is falling, the number of new users and investors is not increasing, and liquidity is falling. In addition, for these reasons, in the last year, crypto has finally turned out from an instrument that would destroy the hegemony of big money, into an instrument - not very studied and too volatile.
What to do in order to revive the interest to crypto? Right now, to start to search and apply new traffic tools. Sources that can give huge coverage and this will help attract new users to your project, for whom you can become the first successful investment in the blockchain. What to study from? What and how to apply? The easiest way, as always, is to learn the experience of those who live in the world of advertising restrictions for a very long period. For example - casinos, forex, bookmakers, unlicensed video etc. We analyzed the largest representatives of these advertisers and chose the most effective method of placement, which appeared in the top of all advertisers – pirate sites with unlicensed content. It is also not a secret that many well-known offline and online retailers and not only are not ashamed of advertising on such sites along with advertising of the above-discriminated businesses. In addition, the crypto industry can be considered so far as discriminated in its rights.
What makes pirate sites so attractive? The main sense of advertising on resources with unlicensed content is the incredibly large coverage of the audience at relatively low prices. The largest resources provide 10 million unique visitors every month. The cost differs depending on the format – pre roll, branding, banner, and order of display. Price - from $ 10 for 1 thousand unique views. It is also worth considering the possibility of paying with crypto and a simple workflow, which allows you to make placements for very young and unknown companies. Technically, such platforms can track all interested users, so that later they can activate their attention in other campaigns to optimize marketing and advertising costs, which will allow the advertiser to save the customer’s budget in such a financially turbulent time, while generating even more leads. Indeed, traditional media today are still too expensive and do not have such technical capabilities of their platforms. The millionth audience of pirate resources is explained by the fact that the user loves unlicensed content, and such a user has other interests and hobbies, including the crypto, blockchain, venture projects and much more, which is so discriminated in advertising by official media and social networks. The ethical issue in the modern world of capitalist chaos caused by the global crisis can be left aside, as for marketing strategies, such ‘’pirate’’ resources:
· provide an opportunity to build moderate total project costs
· save on advertising, but do not limit yourself in their use
· as much as possible and as soon as possible can reach your target group and collect leads
· despite of discrimination to the dissemination of information about the crypto and blockchain project, to have workarounds to gather your audience
· not depend constantly on the changing policies of official expensive advertiser's platforms and their instructions
That is precisely what projects need in order to be successful during the limitation and expensive media.
If you are interested in the opportunities described above or you can offer services that will help crypto projects gather more audiences - feel free to write me: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) or in telegram - u/golubev_serge
Sergey Golubev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO/STO/IEO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support for business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to content_marketing [link] [comments]

‘’Pirates’’ will save crypto?

Perhaps, why not! However, what stops crypto from bullish growing? To my mind, the main reasons are not the volatility and lack of clear legal regulation, but the lack of new users (new blood), which creates a ‘’narrow’’ market. Why is this not a PR message? A message that can potentially attract the attention of brand new users who cannot take into account other investment tools (because of their complexity or high entry point or just because of the restrictions of policies of accredited investors).
If you invested in bitcoin (or in another functional cryptocurrency) exactly a year ago, then even now despite the market drop caused by the new “black swan” - a recession against the background of coronavirus, you would get more than 35% growth.
Why do we see that the audience of followers is not updated? Why all the projects are fighting for the same fans who entered the crypto before 2018 and continuing to place media uselessly on the same sites? As we all remember, until 2018, each project had access to 2 billion audience through a whole set of tools from advertising on social networks to context advertising. We used LinkedIn, reddit, twitter and of course, the 2 main tools for attracting traffic (google and Facebook). Each crypto project, using these marketing instruments, brought its advertising messages to a new audience, not only carrying out the KPI of the project, but also fueling up interest in the blockchain as a whole industry; thereby increasing the demand for crypto and its liquidity. Like any new financial instrument, crypto is faced with the resistance of the old financial system:
· misinformation on TV and the mass media (crypto is a lie, crypto is a drug and terrorism)
· pressure from regulators (SEC refused, limited, punished)
· And, of course, a decision that has the most “destructive” effect - a ban on the largest advertising platforms in the world.
Unfortunately, the sweet times before the “ban” can no longer come back. Since January 2018, advertising of blockchain and cryptocurrency projects on most of the platforms in the world and social networks has been prohibited. The first to limit the right to advertise were Google AdWords and DoubleClick, introducing a direct ban on advertising content in terms of cryptocurrencies and related materials. A similar situation with context advertising is in Yandex Direct. Social networks also show unfair attitude to the crypto industry. Nonetheless, the crypto industry is approaching a line that it becomes simply impossible to ignore. After all, no matter how the new model is revolutionary and capable of making the world a better place — it is doomed to die if no one knows about it. Of course, if you have a good marketing agency, and you are a large and successful venture blockchain project (from the top of best and most famous), with all the necessary licenses, you can still compete for banning in fb and google. Moreover, although it takes a long time, I know several projects that now have permission for official advertising. Despite the fact that the largest platforms have banned startup blockchain advertising, there are still ways to promote it.
What should everyone else do? What to do for a new comer that is just entering the market. Or for an old project that failed to get into the top of the most recognizable? ‘’Use your existing inventory’’ - it seems like the most important piece of advice that almost every project follows. Now we see how hundreds of projects are simultaneously placing on the same platforms (crypto news, ICO listings, bloggers), squeezing the last attention and investments from the same target groups. What are the results? They are obvious. Fundraising is falling, the number of new users and investors is not increasing, and liquidity is falling. In addition, for these reasons, in the last year, crypto has finally turned out from an instrument that would destroy the hegemony of big money, into an instrument - not very studied and too volatile.
What to do in order to revive the interest to crypto? Right now, to start to search and apply new traffic tools. Sources that can give huge coverage and this will help attract new users to your project, for whom you can become the first successful investment in the blockchain. What to study from? What and how to apply? The easiest way, as always, is to learn the experience of those who live in the world of advertising restrictions for a very long period. For example - casinos, forex, bookmakers, unlicensed video etc. We analyzed the largest representatives of these advertisers and chose the most effective method of placement, which appeared in the top of all advertisers – pirate sites with unlicensed content. It is also not a secret that many well-known offline and online retailers and not only are not ashamed of advertising on such sites along with advertising of the above-discriminated businesses. In addition, the crypto industry can be considered so far as discriminated in its rights.
What makes pirate sites so attractive? The main sense of advertising on resources with unlicensed content is the incredibly large coverage of the audience at relatively low prices. The largest resources provide 10 million unique visitors every month. The cost differs depending on the format – pre roll, branding, banner, and order of display. Price - from $ 10 for 1 thousand unique views. It is also worth considering the possibility of paying with crypto and a simple workflow, which allows you to make placements for very young and unknown companies. Technically, such platforms can track all interested users, so that later they can activate their attention in other campaigns to optimize marketing and advertising costs, which will allow the advertiser to save the customer’s budget in such a financially turbulent time, while generating even more leads. Indeed, traditional media today are still too expensive and do not have such technical capabilities of their platforms. The millionth audience of pirate resources is explained by the fact that the user loves unlicensed content, and such a user has other interests and hobbies, including the crypto, blockchain, venture projects and much more, which is so discriminated in advertising by official media and social networks. The ethical issue in the modern world of capitalist chaos caused by the global crisis can be left aside, as for marketing strategies, such ‘’pirate’’ resources:
· provide an opportunity to build moderate total project costs
· save on advertising, but do not limit yourself in their use
· as much as possible and as soon as possible can reach your target group and collect leads
· despite of discrimination to the dissemination of information about the crypto and blockchain project, to have workarounds to gather your audience
· not depend constantly on the changing policies of official expensive advertiser's platforms and their instructions
That is precisely what projects need in order to be successful during the limitation and expensive media.
If you are interested in the opportunities described above or you can offer services that will help crypto projects gather more audiences - feel free to write me: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) or in telegram - u/golubev_serge
Sergey Golubev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO/STO/IEO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support for business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to DigitalMarketing [link] [comments]

‘’Pirates’’ will save crypto?

Perhaps, why not! However, what stops crypto from bullish growing? To my mind, the main reasons are not the volatility and lack of clear legal regulation, but the lack of new users (new blood), which creates a ‘’narrow’’ market. Why is this not a PR message? A message that can potentially attract the attention of brand new users who cannot take into account other investment tools (because of their complexity or high entry point or just because of the restrictions of policies of accredited investors).
If you invested in bitcoin (or in another functional cryptocurrency) exactly a year ago, then even now despite the market drop caused by the new “black swan” - a recession against the background of coronavirus, you would get more than 35% growth.
Why do we see that the audience of followers is not updated? Why all the projects are fighting for the same fans who entered the crypto before 2018 and continuing to place media uselessly on the same sites? As we all remember, until 2018, each project had access to 2 billion audience through a whole set of tools from advertising on social networks to context advertising. We used LinkedIn, reddit, twitter and of course, the 2 main tools for attracting traffic (google and Facebook). Each crypto project, using these marketing instruments, brought its advertising messages to a new audience, not only carrying out the KPI of the project, but also fueling up interest in the blockchain as a whole industry; thereby increasing the demand for crypto and its liquidity. Like any new financial instrument, crypto is faced with the resistance of the old financial system:
· misinformation on TV and the mass media (crypto is a lie, crypto is a drug and terrorism)
· pressure from regulators (SEC refused, limited, punished)
· And, of course, a decision that has the most “destructive” effect - a ban on the largest advertising platforms in the world.
Unfortunately, the sweet times before the “ban” can no longer come back. Since January 2018, advertising of blockchain and cryptocurrency projects on most of the platforms in the world and social networks has been prohibited. The first to limit the right to advertise were Google AdWords and DoubleClick, introducing a direct ban on advertising content in terms of cryptocurrencies and related materials. A similar situation with context advertising is in Yandex Direct. Social networks also show unfair attitude to the crypto industry. Nonetheless, the crypto industry is approaching a line that it becomes simply impossible to ignore. After all, no matter how the new model is revolutionary and capable of making the world a better place — it is doomed to die if no one knows about it. Of course, if you have a good marketing agency, and you are a large and successful venture blockchain project (from the top of best and most famous), with all the necessary licenses, you can still compete for banning in fb and google. Moreover, although it takes a long time, I know several projects that now have permission for official advertising. Despite the fact that the largest platforms have banned startup blockchain advertising, there are still ways to promote it.
What should everyone else do? What to do for a new comer that is just entering the market. Or for an old project that failed to get into the top of the most recognizable? ‘’Use your existing inventory’’ - it seems like the most important piece of advice that almost every project follows. Now we see how hundreds of projects are simultaneously placing on the same platforms (crypto news, ICO listings, bloggers), squeezing the last attention and investments from the same target groups. What are the results? They are obvious. Fundraising is falling, the number of new users and investors is not increasing, and liquidity is falling. In addition, for these reasons, in the last year, crypto has finally turned out from an instrument that would destroy the hegemony of big money, into an instrument - not very studied and too volatile.
What to do in order to revive the interest to crypto? Right now, to start to search and apply new traffic tools. Sources that can give huge coverage and this will help attract new users to your project, for whom you can become the first successful investment in the blockchain. What to study from? What and how to apply? The easiest way, as always, is to learn the experience of those who live in the world of advertising restrictions for a very long period. For example - casinos, forex, bookmakers, unlicensed video etc. We analyzed the largest representatives of these advertisers and chose the most effective method of placement, which appeared in the top of all advertisers – pirate sites with unlicensed content. It is also not a secret that many well-known offline and online retailers and not only are not ashamed of advertising on such sites along with advertising of the above-discriminated businesses. In addition, the crypto industry can be considered so far as discriminated in its rights.
What makes pirate sites so attractive? The main sense of advertising on resources with unlicensed content is the incredibly large coverage of the audience at relatively low prices. The largest resources provide 10 million unique visitors every month. The cost differs depending on the format – pre roll, branding, banner, and order of display. Price - from $ 10 for 1 thousand unique views. It is also worth considering the possibility of paying with crypto and a simple workflow, which allows you to make placements for very young and unknown companies. Technically, such platforms can track all interested users, so that later they can activate their attention in other campaigns to optimize marketing and advertising costs, which will allow the advertiser to save the customer’s budget in such a financially turbulent time, while generating even more leads. Indeed, traditional media today are still too expensive and do not have such technical capabilities of their platforms. The millionth audience of pirate resources is explained by the fact that the user loves unlicensed content, and such a user has other interests and hobbies, including the crypto, blockchain, venture projects and much more, which is so discriminated in advertising by official media and social networks. The ethical issue in the modern world of capitalist chaos caused by the global crisis can be left aside, as for marketing strategies, such ‘’pirate’’ resources:
· provide an opportunity to build moderate total project costs
· save on advertising, but do not limit yourself in their use
· as much as possible and as soon as possible can reach your target group and collect leads
· despite of discrimination to the dissemination of information about the crypto and blockchain project, to have workarounds to gather your audience
· not depend constantly on the changing policies of official expensive advertiser's platforms and their instructions
That is precisely what projects need in order to be successful during the limitation and expensive media.
If you are interested in the opportunities described above or you can offer services that will help crypto projects gather more audiences - feel free to write me: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) or in telegram - u/golubev_serge
Sergey Golubev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO/STO/IEO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support for business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to digital_marketing [link] [comments]

‘’Pirates’’ will save crypto?

If you invested in bitcoin (or in another functional cryptocurrency) exactly a year ago, then even now despite the market drop caused by the new “black swan” - a recession against the background of coronavirus, you would get more than 35% growth.
Why do we see that the audience of followers is not updated? Why all the projects are fighting for the same fans who entered the crypto before 2018 and continuing to place media uselessly on the same sites? As we all remember, until 2018, each project had access to 2 billion audience through a whole set of tools from advertising on social networks to context advertising. We used LinkedIn, reddit, twitter and of course, the 2 main tools for attracting traffic (google and Facebook). Each crypto project, using these marketing instruments, brought its advertising messages to a new audience, not only carrying out the KPI of the project, but also fueling up interest in the blockchain as a whole industry; thereby increasing the demand for crypto and its liquidity. Like any new financial instrument, crypto is faced with the resistance of the old financial system:
· misinformation on TV and the mass media (crypto is a lie, crypto is a drug and terrorism)
· pressure from regulators (SEC refused, limited, punished)
· And, of course, a decision that has the most “destructive” effect - a ban on the largest advertising platforms in the world.
Unfortunately, the sweet times before the “ban” can no longer come back. Since January 2018, advertising of blockchain and cryptocurrency projects on most of the platforms in the world and social networks has been prohibited. The first to limit the right to advertise were Google AdWords and DoubleClick, introducing a direct ban on advertising content in terms of cryptocurrencies and related materials. A similar situation with context advertising is in Yandex Direct. Social networks also show unfair attitude to the crypto industry. Nonetheless, the crypto industry is approaching a line that it becomes simply impossible to ignore. After all, no matter how the new model is revolutionary and capable of making the world a better place — it is doomed to die if no one knows about it. Of course, if you have a good marketing agency, and you are a large and successful venture blockchain project (from the top of best and most famous), with all the necessary licenses, you can still compete for banning in fb and google. Moreover, although it takes a long time, I know several projects that now have permission for official advertising. Despite the fact that the largest platforms have banned startup blockchain advertising, there are still ways to promote it.
What should everyone else do? What to do for a new comer that is just entering the market. Or for an old project that failed to get into the top of the most recognizable? ‘’Use your existing inventory’’ - it seems like the most important piece of advice that almost every project follows. Now we see how hundreds of projects are simultaneously placing on the same platforms (crypto news, ICO listings, bloggers), squeezing the last attention and investments from the same target groups. What are the results? They are obvious. Fundraising is falling, the number of new users and investors is not increasing, and liquidity is falling. In addition, for these reasons, in the last year, crypto has finally turned out from an instrument that would destroy the hegemony of big money, into an instrument - not very studied and too volatile.
What to do in order to revive the interest to crypto? Right now, to start to search and apply new traffic tools. Sources that can give huge coverage and this will help attract new users to your project, for whom you can become the first successful investment in the blockchain. What to study from? What and how to apply? The easiest way, as always, is to learn the experience of those who live in the world of advertising restrictions for a very long period. For example - casinos, forex, bookmakers, unlicensed video etc. We analyzed the largest representatives of these advertisers and chose the most effective method of placement, which appeared in the top of all advertisers – pirate sites with unlicensed content. It is also not a secret that many well-known offline and online retailers and not only are not ashamed of advertising on such sites along with advertising of the above-discriminated businesses. In addition, the crypto industry can be considered so far as discriminated in its rights.
What makes pirate sites so attractive? The main sense of advertising on resources with unlicensed content is the incredibly large coverage of the audience at relatively low prices. The largest resources provide 10 million unique visitors every month. The cost differs depending on the format – pre roll, branding, banner, and order of display. Price - from $ 10 for 1 thousand unique views. It is also worth considering the possibility of paying with crypto and a simple workflow, which allows you to make placements for very young and unknown companies. Technically, such platforms can track all interested users, so that later they can activate their attention in other campaigns to optimize marketing and advertising costs, which will allow the advertiser to save the customer’s budget in such a financially turbulent time, while generating even more leads. Indeed, traditional media today are still too expensive and do not have such technical capabilities of their platforms. The millionth audience of pirate resources is explained by the fact that the user loves unlicensed content, and such a user has other interests and hobbies, including the crypto, blockchain, venture projects and much more, which is so discriminated in advertising by official media and social networks. The ethical issue in the modern world of capitalist chaos caused by the global crisis can be left aside, as for marketing strategies, such ‘’pirate’’ resources:
· provide an opportunity to build moderate total project costs
· save on advertising, but do not limit yourself in their use
· as much as possible and as soon as possible can reach your target group and collect leads
· despite of discrimination to the dissemination of information about the crypto and blockchain project, to have workarounds to gather your audience
· not depend constantly on the changing policies of official expensive advertiser's platforms and their instructions
That is precisely what projects need in order to be successful during the limitation and expensive media.
If you are interested in the opportunities described above or you can offer services that will help crypto projects gather more audiences - feel free to write me: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) or in telegram - u/golubev_serge
Sergey Golubev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO/STO/IEO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support for business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to SocialMediaMarketing [link] [comments]

MAME 0.210

MAME 0.210

It’s time for the delayed release of MAME 0.210, marking the end of May. This month, we’ve got lots of fixes for issues with supported systems, as well as some interesting additions. Newly added hand-held and tabletop games include Tronica’s Shuttle Voyage and Space Rescue, Mattel’s Computer Chess, and Parker Brothers’ Talking Baseball and Talking Football. On the arcade side, we’ve added high-level emulation of Gradius on Bubble System hardware and a prototype of the Neo Geo game Viewpoint. For this release, Jack Li has contributed an auto-fire plugin, providing additional functionality over the built-in auto-fire feature.
A number of systems have had been promoted to working, or had critical issues fixed, including the Heathkit H8, Lola 8A, COSMAC Microkit, the Soviet PC clone EC-1840, Zorba, and COMX 35. MMU issues affecting Apollo and Mac operating systems have been addressed. Other notable improvements include star field emulation in Tutankham, further progress on SGI emulation, Sega Saturn video improvements, write support for the CoCo OS-9 disk image format, and preliminary emulation for MP3 audio on Konami System 573 games.
There are lots of software list additions this month. Possibly most notable is the first dump of a Hanimex Pencil II cartridge, thanks to the silicium.org team. Another batch of cleanly cracked and original Apple II software has been added, along with more ZX Spectrum +3 software, and a number of Colour Genie cassette titles.
That’s all we’ve got space for here, but there are lots more bug fixes, alternate versions of supported arcade games, and general code quality improvements. As always, you can get the source and Windows binary packages from the download page.

MAMETesters Bugs Fixed

New working machines

New working clones

Machines promoted to working

Clones promoted to working

New machines marked as NOT_WORKING

New clones marked as NOT_WORKING

New working software list additions

Software list items promoted to working

New NOT_WORKING software list additions

Source Changes

submitted by cuavas to emulation [link] [comments]

(Cont.) Strategy Analysis and Prep GJ - 11.11

(Cont.) Strategy Analysis and Prep GJ - 11.11
11.10.2019 analysis: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/duoc68/uthefrozen_one_strategy_analysis_and_prep_gj/

DAILY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS

Monday - Definitely a day ruled by the bulls. Referencing my last post, there was not a whole lot that my trade entries (chosen before market) allowed me to do. A bit past the upper side of my chosen entry zone you will see a double top, and on the M5, it makes a pretty clean M pattern. However, because it was so extended, I simply didn't want to jump in and "Guess the Top". Those with better analysis than I may have seen the turning point as the perfect short, as it lined up with a high made on Nov 7 at about 10:45 just perfectly. Personally, I think it is difficult to decipher demand from noise on the M15, but today was a learning experience, as I was surprised to see so many levels blown out of the water by London's early moves. Lessons learned.
Anyhow, not much changed here in the larger time frames. Daily chart and H4 are creating a very nice volatility tunnel. A true tease, the guppy is not giving us much here. What really bothers me? On the daily chart, it looks as though the nearest upward spike peaked on Oct. 21. Look left and what do you see? Not a whole lot. Nothing in the way of major supply to stop the impulse we saw. Much like banks build their order book in the JPY session (depending on who you study), this appears to be the same thing only on a grander scale. Is the lack of supply/selling pressure enough to see this to 147.xxx in the coming month, or would the banks rather average down to better supply/price before making that same move...

POSITIONING OF POTENTIAL ENTRIES:

This pair is in a lot of noise, and as such, like yesterday, I am truly thrown off about whether to choose a long or short bias. Rather, I will simply determine two points at which I feel I have both allowed myself to allow the market to make its move as well as allowed for the over extension necessary for good R:R.
To the short side, I like an entry of around 140.58. The red "1", "2", and "3" represent any unfilled orders in the near term. the 3rd level is the most opportune in my humble opinion. Beyond that, there is significant room to run, so I will be looking for good signs of reversal before making my entry.
To the long side, I am more cloudy. At the very least, the US/AUD low provides some simply stop hunt opportunities, but this is not as far out as I'd prefer. the M15 Proximal demand zone shows a fairly text book rally-base-rally. However, being on the M15, I am not putting much behind it other than a zone to watch should the long stop hunt move get blown by. The 3rd level of demand listed with the Blue "3", provides a location with unfilled stops that stand the most to lose given the last trading day.

https://preview.redd.it/2bwwnzutj6y31.png?width=1915&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd16179dd0516b773abc6b099f572e03d8b4c2c8
All that said, I will wait and see which direction the market surges in London open (if at all), and then prep myself for the fade. Having looked through u/thefrozen_one trades, I am going to be looking for the following to assist my entry:
  • Sharp rejection at my chosen entries - I am still learning how to place these, so I will also be looking left for structure to provide confluence to my analysis in the moment.
  • M/W patterns on the M15 or M5
  • Tweezers/long wicks - again, looking for confluence here and not blindly trading wicks.
I appreciate those who entertain my rambling. At this stage, I am not anywhere near predicting the next move. However, this has been my first opportunity to consistently keep myself honest in analyzing and tracking a forex pair, free of indicator madness. I am excited to see my rather dry and ambiguous observances mature into confident bias with which I attack daily trades.
Green pips to all!
submitted by Rich_Foamy_Flan to Forex [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How To Profit From Double Top Formations In Forex Strategies for Trading Double Tops Chart Patterns How to Best Trade Double Tops and Double Bottoms in Forex Trading strategies 20. How to trade a Double Top in Forex Part 1 (Capital Forex Training) How to Trade the Double Top Pattern - YouTube The Simple Double Top Pattern: Naked Trading Explained ... Learn FOREX - Double top and Double bottom formation ...

In general, Bulkowski reveals that on average, the break-even and failure rate of the double top pattern is 11.5%, while the percentage of break-even and failure of double bottom is 6.5%. However, the double top formation tends to reach its price target 71.5%, while the double bottom tends to strike its target 51.25% of times. A double top pattern usually forms at the top of an uptrend with the price failing to form a fresh higher high. Instead, the price finds resistance at a previous swing high and reverses, forming two highs at roughly the same price level (hence the name, double top.) A double top pattern is shown in the following EUR/USD chart. Notice points (1 ... The double top pattern is one of the most common technical patterns used by Forex traders. It’s certainly one of my go-to methods of identifying a potential top. Just as the name implies, this price action pattern involves the formation of two highs at a critical resistance level. The idea that the market was rejected from this level not once, but twice, is an indication that the level is ... Similar to the second Double Top formation, we do not want a second top that is too far away from the first top. In this chart above, you can see that the second top is significantly lower than the first top. While in certain cases it can be a viable setup to go Short, we do not consider this a Double Top for our purposes. How to Trade the Double Top in Forex. While there are many different ... When a double top or double bottom chart pattern appears, a trend reversal has begun. Let’s learn how to identify these chart patterns and trade them. Double Top. A double top is a reversal pattern that is formed after there is an extended move up. The “tops” are peaks which are formed when the price hits a certain level that can’t be broken. After hitting this level, the price will ... Double Top Formation is one of the most reliable signs that a parity that is continuing its upward trend is changing in direction of decline. The parity comes to a point during the uptrend, which is no longer able to withstand sales pressures and starts to return. Here is the first leg of the dual peak is formed. Savings owners, who see that the trend changes direction and who are in a buying ... No chart pattern is more common in trading than the double bottom or double top.In fact, this pattern appears so often that it alone may serve as proof positive that price action is not as wildly ... Reasons Behind the “Double Top/Bottom” Pattern Formation. In general, the reasons and the motives of the formation are similar to that of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern, and only the pattern type is different. However, we’re going to describe one of the possible options of its formation for clarity. Reasons behind the formation. Suppose that a “major” participant, who wants to buy ... Double top chart patterns are very popular among forex traders. Learn how to spot double tops in forex and stock charts, and how to use them to plan your trades.

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How To Profit From Double Top Formations In Forex

Master The PULLBACK TRADE (3 Strategies That Make BANK In Forex!...) and in stocks - Duration: 22:28. The Trading Channel 93,116 views In this session you will see how to spot a "special case" double top (or double bottom) formation on the charts. You will get the rules, techniques for tradi... Learn how to spot a Double top or Double bottom patterns on your charts and how to trade them. Learn more about forex trading at https://www.youtube.com/uksp... Double Tops Chart Pattern Strategies Let's look at some rules for trading the double top charting trading strategy. Different ways to trade the double top. In this video we are going to review the ... Double top and bottom patterns are chart patterns that occur when the underlying investment moves in a similar pattern to the letter "W" (double bottom) or "M" (double top). Double top and bottom ... Video 1 of 2 - In this Forex training video we discuss the characteristics of the double top and the surrounding market conditions you should consider. Before you learn how to trade the double top ... http://goo.gl/BMLh7F The double top pattern is one of the most common technical patterns used by Forex traders. It is a reversal pattern that forms after an ...

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