Losing consistently in a trend is frustrating. It tends to make people feel either stupid or conspired against. The market always goes up ... until you buy. What's with that?submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]
If you find yourself getting the run around in trending moves, this post should help.
We'll start with having a look at the areas common styles of trend following can generate losing signals '/ stop losses. The two main types of trend trading are breakouts and retracements. Here we can see the areas they are likely to generate losing trades in a typical trend formation.
On the left, we have breakout loses. On the right we have retracement losses.
The trades on the right are not too much of a problem. If you had a sold trend trading strategy using breakouts and maintained it with good money management, you'd be doing well. Having some strings of small losses would not matter relative to the trend moves you catch. It's this red bit. This is where things get sketchy. Here a lot of false signals will be generated. In a larger picture for retracement traders, but also on short term false breakouts.
Strategies that would have been very profitable ran through the blue area can become breakeven or losing strategies in the red area. This is actually (in my view) likely the reason most trend based EAs that can be designed easily or bought have limited long term profitability even if they produce great short term results. To make money in a blue market, the EA needs you to tell it how to do two things. Not get stopped out, and sell. There may be bumpy bits, but it will make money so long as that market condition continues.
This is all well and good, but the reality of having to deal with risk control in adverse market conditions will inevitably come along. When this happens, not adapting your trend strategy to filter out the losing streaks that most strategies will generate seriously hampers your net profitability and can even turn a good strategy bad.
In the early week gap and brief breakout on USDJPY, I thought it was likely we were switching from a blue market to a red market. So I activated the trend followers of different variations on my Shorting Noobs strategy, and waited to see if they'd pick up the worst signals (giving me ideal entries).
I explained what I thought the best trade pan for the sort of price action we'd see in the coming trading sessions would be.
My theory here is if you put a bunch of okay strategies (and these are not horrible traders. They have rules, and follow them. Do overall okay) into the very worst conditions, they'll do the worst thing. Which saves me the effort of being here doing what I think is the best thing. To look for big drops, and then it have a little false breakout. Buy this and take profits into spikes.
Here that is a bit closer.
Particularly where the red mark is, this has produce a perfect counter signal. Sharp drop, false breakout. Buy and take profit into spike up.
The interesting thing about this for me, is I do not find too much to be critical about with many of these positions if we are to look at the market from the perspective of a seller. Their stop losses seem to make sense from much of the stop loss rules commonly used (and ones working for them okay in other times of the strategy), but they're commonly being stopped out at the highs.
The main problem most strategies have is the recurrence of what can be increasingly strong looking sell signals. When using solid rules, this is a limited problem (can still be big), but without this and with there being emotional decisions made, this is a really hard time to trade. It's easy to lose all your money trying to follow the trend here, without really doing too much wrong other than starting to chase a loss or refuse to accept a loss. Then things happen so quickly, and that's it. Being a revenge seller selling into the bear engulfing bars right before the 50 pips 1 minute candles does not go well a few times in a row (tried and tested, would not recommend).
As I mentioned in the comments for the OP of this analysis, I stopped selling at 106.05. I stopped copying most of the strategies there because I didn't want them accumulating sells at a possible high. All through the consolidation period their have been sells accumulating and obviously the stops are above the highs, which is exactly the area I'd expect to spike out and reverse from in this pattern. It's what my manual trade plan inverts.
So at this point these strategies that have been doing well over the blue period (which has been a longer time) have lost most of gains. If the trend continues from here in the main they will breakeven on this red section (would be okay). If there are spike outs of the highs they will generate a lot more losing signals. By the end of this, strategies that have been profitable for 3 months will have leaked back a substantial amount of that in only 4 - 5 days.
Learning to remove these correction weeks from their trading patterns would very much benefit most trend following systems.
Here's the overall results from betting against either trend following or trend reversal mistakes like this.
|https://jkonfx.com/||Technical & fundamental news on currencies. I would advise newer traders not to trade solely on external opinions because that won't cement your own methodology or reasons for trading. Excellent website for if you want an overview of the markets and daily reports. Also includes a trading journal and a lot of media attention.|
|http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/||A good blog for new traders/ investors. Lot of ‘top 10 lists’ to flick through.|
|http://www.tradingheroes.com/||This is absolutely amazing! I can't put a value on this! It's one of the best gems of the internet. Podcasts interviewing successful traders, some are notable such as 50pips, Walter Peters & Chris Kapre.|
|http://www.nobrainertrades.com/||Found this when doing the podcast link below, it's actually really good high quality stuff. Blog based with plenty of educational material.|
|http://www.chatwithtraders.com||A weekly podcast that interviews successful traders. Thank you gumballfrank for this.|
|http://ftp.traderkingdom.com/||Not had much of a chance to check this out, but first impression are nice!|
|http://www.forexlive.com||Heavily oriented towards fundamentals. Good news portal submitted by WinterTires thanks!|
|http://www.tradeciety.com/||Heavily visually oriented perfect for beginners! Lots of infographics and info. Submitted by gumballfrank|
|ONLINE SCHOOLS & LEARNING PORTALS||N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|http://www.tradimo.com||A superb website dedicated to training people to become better investors traders for free.|
|http://www.babypips.com||One of the best free online schools which tracks your progress and teaches you heaps on information. The forum is the gem, where many people keep trade journals and put up their strategies. Don't copy them but borrowing concepts and ideas is good.|
|http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/forex-military-school-complete-forex-education-pro-banke||Unbelievably thorough! Education on forex trading, literally everything is covered.|
|http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school||Very wide ranging resource that focuses mainly on technical analysis.|
|http://www.investopedia.com||This should be a given, but seriously – this place is the Wikipedia of trading/ investing.|
|http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/swing-trading-basics.html||Actually a really good learning resource that mentions psychology and momentum among other things.|
|http://thepatternsite.com/Psychology.html||Really good information on trading psychology – something that often goes unnoticed with beginners.|
|http://www.finvids.com/||Cool little website with videos on candle patterns and chart patterns.|
|http://www.fxacademy.com/||Appears to be a free trading academy. Not tried it personally, but it looks really good. With plenty of videos for visual learners.|
|ARTICLES OF INTEREST||N/A -----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009/05/14/trading-psychology-stages-investor-emotions/||An article on the ’14 stages of investor emotions’ knowing who you are and what is happening to you can lead you to make more calculated decisions.|
|http://fourhourworkweek.com/2014/10/15/money-master-the-game/||Tim Ferris, author of The 4 Hour Work Week interviews Tony Robbins to find out the success behind the worlds best investors. Talking about morning routines, peak performance & mastering money!|
|http://www.tradeciety.com/category/trading-blog/||Best trading & investing blogs and articles as picked by tradeciety.com|
|http://www.forextradetracker.com/blog/understanding-forex-jargon-a-glossary-for-beginners||Forex jargon glossary for beginners. Submitted by gumballfrank|
|http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/||Excellent learning resource, main focus is to help avoid people getting scammed.|
|http://www.trade2win.com/boards/||Massive forum for beginners to talk to more experienced traders – very active community.|
|http://www.forexfactory.com/forum.php||Much like trade2win but more focused towards forex.|
|http://forums.babypips.com/||Another forum dedicated to forex traders. You'll find people keeping good strategies here, list them via most views first to find the real gems.|
|MISCELLANEOUS RESOURCES||N/A --------------------------------------------------------------------|
|http://www.forex-warez.com/Free%20Download/||Every book you could ever want on trading, investing, market psychology, strategies etc.|
|http://www.forextradetracker.com/||SUPER IMPORTANT This website is paramount to your success, still in development but will provide users with an easy way to document trades. Success is determined by your willingness to follow through with the boring bits so keep this one in your bookmarks.|
|http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candlestick-pattern-flashcard-game.html||Super useful Flashcard game that helps you to remember important candlestick patterns.|
|http://www.hotcandlestick.com/forex_charts.htm||Important candlestick patterns that have appeared on the major currency pairs. Good for a quick overview.|
|http://www.freeonlinetradingeducation.com/chart-school.html||Website offering visual illustration & practical applications of popular candlestick patterns.|
|http://www.hotcandlestick.com/candles.htm||Glossary of candlestick patterns.|
|http://www.incrediblecharts.com/topic/Technical_Analysis||Another resource for learning technical analysis. Not particularly thorough but useful for basic concepts.|
|http://www.forexschoolonline.com/||Market overviews and trading opportunity videos provided, along with educational videos and the like.|
|http://www.tradersdna.com/education/||Another trading education site focusing more on forex.|
|YOUTUBE CHANNELS||N/A ------------------------------------------------------|
|https://www.youtube.com/useJarrattDavisForex||Jarratt Davis - plenty of educational videos to help you get your bearings! *Submitted by masudhossain|
|https://www.youtube.com/useOneStepRemoved||Shaun Overton interviews many forex traders to find out why and how they work.|
|TTL001 – Pro Trader Interview: Haji Warithu||What he attributes his success to, what amount of money you need to start and how to choose an Islamic broker among other stuff.|
|TTL002 – Full-Time Trader Interview: Jessica Peletier, AKA Rogue Traderette||How she lets her partner know there are losses as well as wins. Where she learnt to trade, why CFDs are amazing etc.|
|TTL003 - Interview with Pro Trader and mentor Chris Lori.||His thoughts on backtesting, why being athletic counts, his development and timeline as a trader, how his trading results exploded and what to do if you want to manage funds.|
|TTL004 – Interview With Pro Trader Adam Jowett||The common trait he sees in successful traders, how long it took him to become profitable, the most important trade that made him successful, his favourite books and why they both like Jessica Peletier.|
|TTL005 Doesn't seem to exist.||I'm not joking.|
|TTL006 – How Colin Jessup Went From Warehouse Worker To Professional Forex Trader And Soon-To-Be Fund Manager||A warehouse worker went through his trials and tribulations to be given the offer of managing an $80 million fund. How he started with $800 and no clue what to do, 2 biggest mistakes he sees traders making, how he continues to improve and what has happened to his lifestyle since becoming a full-time trader.|
|TTL007 – The Inspiring Story Of How Psychologist Walter Peters Quit His Dream Job To Trade Forex Naked For A Living (not what you think)||How Walter Peters quit his job to trade forex for a living. This guy trades naked using No indicators|
|TTL008 – How Lynette Allen Combines Minimalism, Line Charts And Only One Currency Pair To Trade For A Living||How Timothy Sykes inspired her, what minimalism is all about and how it's spread to every facet of her life, what her single pair to trade is, what the 2 best traits for successful traders are and plenty more!|
|TTL009 – How Brian McAboy Leveraged His Engineering Background To Trade And Coach For A Living||What plastic bottles have to do with trading, how much money you need to have to be properly funded and go full-time, how much work you have to do and how long it'll take to get there, 2 best traits to have and loads loads more!|
|TTL010 – How Rafael Veron Taught His Wife To Trade Better Than Fund Managers||Can you actually trade from a beach? The use of hypnosis to make him a better trader, the method that works with his psychology, how much you need to get started, how long it took him to become profitable and what he would do differently if he had to start over! plus loads more!|
|TTL011 – Why (and how) 50 Pips Trades Forex For A Living||What does trading have to do with golf? Things you could learn from his students and his opinion on black box systems and fibo retracements.|
|TTL012 – How A Millionaire’s Intuition Transformed Chris Capre From Yoga Instructor To Professional Forex Trader||Personal Favorite I love this guy because he's true and noble. He is philanthropic, offers trading courses that are cheap and really knows what he's talking about. He explains how a 3 second glance can stop you 2nd guessing yourself, how much he made with $3000 in 6 months and plenty more!|
|TTL013 – Steve From No Brainer Trades And The Only Thing You Need To Remember When Trading||What the biggest killer of our accounts is, the cliches that are true, where to find the hidden information amongst many other things.|
|TTL014 – How Casey Stubbs Went From Computer Geek To Forex Trader||His opinion on EAs, why he trades the way he does and the biggest mistakes to avoid!|
|TTL015 – Trading For A Living Risking Only 8 To 12 Pips Per Trade: Kim Krompass||How she was profitable from the start, her strongest trait, her strong opinion on backtesting and demo accounts, how she lost her fortune and info on her 2 most succesful students.|
|TTL016 – How Custom Programming Can Help Almost Any Trader With Shaun Overton||How to know when you're in the forex dream, lots of info on automated systems and his experience with AI.|
|TTL017 – Bank Dealer Turned Independent Trader Walter Vannelli Shares His Experience||His unique style of meditation, why banks win and how you can fight back, his daily routine and how much you needed to trade in the 80's.|
|TTL018 – How Reynaldo Soriano Makes A Living Trading 1 Hour A Day||Why he holds trading contests, why forex is the best market to learn in, how institutions work and why he stopped day trading.|
|How A South Central Public School Teacher Became A Successful Forex Trader With Greg McLeod||How he's turned some traders around in 30 minutes, why you never trade on a monday, the courses he bought, why he teaches outside the classroom and why he sent his kids to learn chinese.|
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